Venezuela, Guyana & The Essequibo Crisis – Posturing or a new Special Military Operation?
Until recently, the comparatively small nation of Guyana didn’t make global news particularly often. What was reported was generally a good news story – With oil discoveries and growing production driving rapid economic growth in the historically poor nation.
Now the nation is in the global spotlight as with the escalation of a centuries old territorial dispute, and neighbouring Venezuela asserting an intention to incorporate more than two thirds of Guyana’s current territory into Venezuela.
Is the move simply domestically focused theatre, an attempt to pressure Guyana and the USA, or the prelude to a South American take on the ‘Special Military Operation?’ In this episode we discuss the nations involved, their motivations, resources, and try to ask why this is happening, and what may come next.
One note: I want to feature up here I refer to Russia as an OPEC member as shorthand in this video. They are more accurately described as a member of OPEC+ .
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing (to be expanded)
On the 1899 Arbitration
Awardhttps://legal.un.org/riaa/cases/vol_XXVIII/331-340.pdf
1966 Agreement to Resolve the Controversy over the Frontier between Venezuela and British Guiana (Geneva Agreement)
https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/GB-VE_660217_Agreement%20to%20Resolve%20Controversy%20over%20Frontier%20British%20Guiana.pdf
Relevant ICJ releases and hearing records:
https://www.icj-cij.org/case/171
ICJ Order of 1 December 2023
https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/171/171-20231201-ord-01-00-en.pdf
IMF Profile: Guyana
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/GUY
IMF Profile: Venezuela
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/VEN
Featured Reports:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/06/venezuela-annex-guyana-maduro
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/06/americas/venezuelas-president-orders-creation-of-new-state-and-map-including-land-from-guyana/index.html
https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-guyana-essequibo-territory-dispute-maduro-referendum-d956cc4d5d2a70e3a1e762b744e397de
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-05/venezuela-s-maduro-to-grant-mineral-oil-licenses-in-essequibo?embedded-checkout=true
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-06/venezuelan-national-guardsmen-have-been-deserting-in-big-numbers?embedded-checkout=true
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/offshore-discoveries-turn-tiny-guyana-into-oil-hotspot-2023-10-23/
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-proposes-sixth-oil-project-guyana-129-billion-2023-08-21/
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/guyana-says-another-significant-discovery-made-stabroek-offshore-block-2023-10-26/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Venezuela & Guyana
00:01:28 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:34 — Venezuela
00:07:36 — Guyana
00:15:35 — Essequibo & Escalation
00:24:55 — Venezuela’s Military
00:36:47 — Readiness, Manpower & Corruption
00:41:29 — Guyana’s Military
00:43:30 — A Venezuelan Special Military Operation?
00:51:21 — Regional Actors
00:58:13 — A Risky Throw Of The Dice?
01:04:37 — Conclusion
01:05:36 — Channel Update
source
About The Author
Firstly – I have COVID again and its awful. As a result this one might be a bit rougher than usual as I've often had to, for example, chop together bits of audio to remove coughs or parts where my voice didn't sound right. Apologies – hope it won't be an issue next week.
Secondly – thank you to all of you who voted for this topic. It was great to get a chance to jump over to South America for a week – and it really confirmed for me that I'd love to cover some of the major regional players like Brazil in the future.
Thirdly I want to make sure it's clear that I think it's important as always to distinguish between the actions of certain leaders (like Maduro) and the country they lead. For any Venezuelans watching (especially those of you who reached out and offered your thoughts and comments) – please don't take any slight against a particular leader as a negative statement towards the country or its people more broadly.
Finally – a note I want to add on listening back today. I refer to Russia as an OPEC member as shorthand – but it would be more accurate to describe them as part of OPEC+. That larger group has been at the fore recently – especially since late 2022's production cuts. The distinction doesn't impact the imperative of consumer countries to get more production online outside the OPEC+ grouping – but I thought it was worth a note.
I have come from the future to tell you everybody worried too much…and that reality is more surprising than any commonly-foreseen scenario.
I think guyanas good to make all the oil money they want now
Well well well…. if it isnt the powerpoint man's video in my recommended again right after cuba happenings…
2 years on… I miss the old crises.
This one has a bit diffrent flavor on rewatch now that Maduro is gone.
An oil-rich nation lead by a dictator with a glorious stache is about to attack a small, neighbouring nation that also happens to be rich in oil.
We are witnessing history repeating itself. This was a comment by someone else and look how true 2026 with war in iran proves this
Born in an oil company camp in Venezuela . Enjoyed.
FYI the first general election in Guyana post-independance was gerrymandered by the UK under pressure from the US. This has been admitted since. Google "uk gerrymandered guyana's first election" in AI mode use 'a deeper dive' Also they are part of the West Indies as far as cricket goes … Shivnarine Chanderpaul, Lance Gibbs, Colin Croft, Devendra Bishoo and Carl Hooper
Glad this didn't come to blows, not supporting the Yoinkening of Maduro (don't think that's a good international precedent, but I don't care much for Maduro so it's purely a principles thing), but it's better than most of options in this video.
Funny how this aged 😂
Well, Guyana definitely gained a lot from the US removing Maduro
1:00:14 "So if your whole bet is that the Americans will turn down the opportunity to fight a quick, likely victorious defensive war in their own neighbourhood against a self-declared socialist state in an environment where oil is on the table … "
Hey mate, if you got next week's lotto numbers i'm willing to split the winnings 50/50 with you
now somewhat moot poiint due to an orange hamburger addict.
So ahead of the curve he covered the essentials two years ago.
Well well well. What a f’ing world we live in
Didn't expect this becoming a part of history that quick…what a start of a year
I can't wait for the update
Let me just read up on some contextual history
Hard to believe this was two years ago. It seems like yesterday.